Common Sense For New Hampshire

A little discussion today about Benford’s Law, a mathematical observation that predicts the frequency of the first digit of all sorts of numbers. It seems to accurately apply to financial reporting numbers, geographic numbers such as street addresses or length of rivers and tabulation numbers like vote counts. It is commonly used to detect financial and election fraud and has in cases been accepted as legal evidence.  If any of you out there are financial auditors you probably know about it.

Here is an explanation from Wikipedia:

And some of its applications:

It was damning evidence in the Enron case.

And as mentioned above, in the 2009 Iranian election.

We have a comparison from Chicago of the top six presidential tickets’ results compared to what would be predicted. Trump, the Green Party, and the Libertarians had numbers that pretty much fell in line with what would be expected. Two of the tickets didn’t really get enough votes in Chicago to even reach digits that would have a lower likelihood of appearing. But look at Biden’s numbers.

Now when you hear the talking heads say there is no evidence of “widespread” voter fraud they are trying to distract you from what is really going on.  We not talking about widespread voter fraud.  Whether or not there was any voter fraud in Kansas or Oregon doesn’t matter.  What we are talking about is massive specifically-targeted fraud that would do what it would take to flip large states.  It was particularly helpful for potential ballot stuffers to know the results from election day and then utilize the big city urban Democratic machines to generate enough votes in the days after to flip the big states that they then knew would be within reach, e.g. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

In the graphic below the top three rows are Trump’s numbers in blue compared to the expected numbers in orange for Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit.  In the bottom row we see Biden’s numbers in blue for the same three cities.

BTW, voter turnout in Milwaukee was an unbelievable 90% with some precincts reporting more votes than they had registered voters.

Update: Pittsburgh too.

NH will continue as freest state in the land.

God I love this place.